Premarket read, Monday September 14, 2026. Prices and breadth are from Friday the 11th's close; premarket moves are from the 4:06 AM (New York) panel, on thin volume, and move in real time.
The signal says green. The crowd behind the signal is thinning by the day. That's today's whole story, and it's worth seeing exactly.
Exposure: green, 2:1 allowed
| Signal | Reading | Distance to the trigger |
|---|---|---|
| QQQ vs. its 200-session average | 714.88 vs. 659.26 (Sept 11 close) | +8.4%: it would have to fall 7.8% to turn red |
| Fed | Effective rate 3.63%, ceiling 3.75%, unchanged in 6 months (Sept 10 data) | Not rising |
In premarket the Nasdaq falls 1.53%. If QQQ opens there, it lands around $704 (an estimate) and the cushion drops to ~6.8% — but the light doesn't change. Nothing is on watch.
And a note on what the rule is for, because a green Monday is when it's easiest to forget: it isn't there to earn more — it costs about 4.2 points of return, and in exchange it cuts the worst historical drawdown from −32.6% to −12.9%. Today it requires touching nothing.
What changes today: nothing that forces action — and one statistic
What is moving is breadth. In three sessions, Nasdaq-100 members above their 200-day average went from 61.8% to 56.9% to 54.9% — and today the ones falling are precisely the companies that were pushing the index: the semiconductors.
One more step on the staircase: QQQ closed Friday only 0.6% above its 50-session average (714.88 vs 710.41). A −1.5% open puts it below. That's not the governor's trigger — but it's the first stair.
The universe: the fall is underneath the surface
| Month | Quarter | Year | 3 years | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | −2.35% | −0.79% | +22.98% | +95.5% |
| SPY | −1.75% | +3.30% | +17.50% | +78.3% |
| RSP (equal-weighted) | −3.53% | +1.91% | +14.77% | +52.9% |
| IWM (small caps) | −4.81% | −1.15% | +21.22% | +62.4% |
Two things stand out. The one-year QQQ-IWM gap is just 1.8 points — this year, picking the Nasdaq has barely paid versus small caps. And SPY beats its own equal-weighted version by 2.7 points: over the last month the average company falls more than the index. The decline is below the surface.
The premarket fall (from the panel's headline) is a semiconductor affair: MU −4.95%, INTC −5.38%, LRCX −5.11%, KLAC −5.00%, AMAT −4.96%, AMD −4.82%, AVGO −2.95%, NVDA −2.08% — plus HPE −5.61%, DELL −2.91%, ORCL −3.05%. Oil majors rise: XOM +1.62%, CVX +1.61%. The panel attributes it to oil (Middle East) and doubts about AI growth.
Breadth: the divergence, in one table
| Index | Above 20-day | Above 50-day | Above 200-day | Far from highs | Avg. RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 | 20.6% | 33.3% | 54.9% | 54.9% | 43.9 |
| S&P 500 | 23.7% | 36.2% | 55.5% | 37.2% | 44.6 |
| Russell 2000 | 28.7% | 36.9% | 56.0% | 54.8% | 45.6 |
The trend, member by member (share above their 200-day): Nasdaq-100 61.8% → 56.9% → 54.9% across Sept 9, 10 and 14; S&P 500 60.0% → 56.7% → 55.5%.
The 4:06 AM premarket panel points the same way: 39.3% of the market above its 50-day average, and 31 new highs against 40 new lows. Thin-volume snapshot — but consistent.
Who published: Friday's SEC index
26 earnings reports and 3,717 filings on Friday the 11th (weekend skipped). Known names: ORCL (first-quarter 10-Q), GWRE, FLWS, SMBC and LPTH (10-K), RENT (10-Q), RSSS (10-K). Events: SUPN takes its merger to a vote (DEFM14A); IPO filings (S-1) from QVCG, DYAI, ELOX and RENT; ATAI and ING filed 25-NSE notices — almost always maturing debt, not the stock, but without opening the document nothing is asserted. And no late-filing notices (NT 10-Q) — nobody is hiding their accounts this week.
The five tests: one clean pass out of thirteen
Every reporting company goes through the same five checks — does profit grow with revenue, how much of the operating profit goes out as stock pay, cash yield against the 5–6% cost of money, how much of the profit is non-operating, and debt. The short version of Friday's batch:
| Ticker | The line that decides |
|---|---|
| CSBR | Grows and doesn't earn: revenue +6.7%, margin from 4.7% to −1.7% |
| GWRE | Operating profit ×3.6 with revenue +22.7% — and stock pay equal to 121.3% of that operating profit disqualifies it. The growth is real; the shareholders are paying for it by diluting themselves |
| BUKS | Operating +73.8% on revenue +28.9% (margin 21.3% → 28.7%), stock pay 0.7% |
| JVA | The only one that passes all five: operating +88.8%, revenue +8.2%, zero stock pay, 41.2% cash yield — but in a company this small that usually comes from working capital (coffee inventory being sold). Open the 10-Q before believing it |
| AXR | Revenue −15.3%, operating −54.1% |
| HOFT / CULP | Revenue falling, losses (larger at HOFT, smaller at CULP) |
| FREVS | Coherent (+4.1% / +4.5%) — but interest eats 24.4% of revenue |
| ECXJ | Current ratio 0.15 |
| BNC / FLWS | See data hygiene below |
Data hygiene: the day the module caught itself
Three discrepancies between Finviz and the official XBRL accounts (BNC's operating margin: −128.5% vs −433.0% — XBRL rules, Finviz runs a quarter behind; HOFT +1.0% vs −4.7%; FLWS debt figures). And two flags against our own module: BNC came out labeled "coherent" when its operating result worsens 2,952% on +3.1% revenue — it should print red, and its 158.9% of pre-tax profit doesn't come from operating. FLWS and CULP print as "operating leverage" when they're really shrinking losses on flat-to-falling sales. Neither error changes today's reading; both are noted for the next version of the screen. We'd rather show the bugs than hide them.
In one sentence
What is verified and what comes from a headline
| Item | Source | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Signal, prices, averages and returns (QQQ, SPY, RSP, IWM) | stockanalysis.com, Sept 11 close | Verified at source |
| Fed rate | New York Fed, Sept 10 | Verified at source |
| Breadth of the three indexes | Finviz sweep, member by member, Sept 11 close | Calculated |
| Filings and events | SEC index, Sept 11 | Verified in the registry |
| The five tests | Each company's SEC XBRL | Verified (JVA pending its 10-Q) |
| Premarket moves, oil/AI narrative, insider flows | 4:06 AM panel, Sept 14 | Headline only, unverified |
| Estimated QQQ open (~$704) | Derived: close × (1 − 1.53%) | Estimate |